Know your revenue.
Forecast it with confidence.
Obelisk turns a single subscriptions CSV into board-grade analytics: MRR movements, cohort retention, survival curves, LTV with confidence intervals, Monte Carlo forecasts and explainable churn risk.
The live demo needs no sign-up and runs entirely in your browser.
Features
Everything your board asks about revenue, answered with error bars.
MRR ledger & movements
New, expansion, contraction, churn and reactivation, reconciled to the penny every month, with ARR, NRR, GRR, ARPA and quick ratio.
Cohort retention heatmaps
Logo and revenue retention by acquisition month, with weighted averages that show whether newer cohorts are retaining better.
Kaplan–Meier survival
Customer lifetime curves by segment or plan with Greenwood confidence bands, median lifetime and a log-rank significance test.
LTV with confidence intervals
LTV, LTV:CAC and CAC payback with bootstrap intervals, so the board sees a range you can defend instead of one fragile number.
Monte Carlo forecasting
Thousands of simulated futures from your own churn, expansion and new-business dynamics. Fan charts, targets and scenario sliders.
Explainable churn risk
A regularised logistic model, validated out of time, scores every account and shows which factors are driving its risk.
Methodology
Statistics, not vibes.
Each metric comes from a published, peer-reviewed method, implemented from first principles and validated against reference implementations. Every assumption is visible and adjustable.
- 1UploadDrop in a CSV. Validation shows the exact line and column of any problem.
- 2AnalyseThe engine builds a monthly ledger and runs every model in under a second.
- 3DecideStress-test scenarios, export at-risk accounts and take ranges to the board.
Product-limit survival with log-log confidence intervals and median-lifetime CIs.
k-sample χ² test for whether segments or plans really retain differently.
Percentile intervals on LTV, payback and LTV:CAC from a seeded PRNG, so results are reproducible.
Dirichlet-multinomial account transitions, lognormal expansion and Poisson-Gamma new business.
Newton–Raphson with line search; out-of-time AUC reported honestly.
Start + new + expansion + reactivation − contraction − churn = end, every month.
Pricing
Priced for teams that care about every pound of MRR.
Monthly billing in GBP, excluding VAT. Annual plans get two months free.
Starter
For founders who want the truth about their revenue.
or £390/year
- Up to £50k MRR analysed
- MRR movements & KPIs
- Cohort retention
- CSV import
- 1 seat
Growth
For finance and RevOps teams reporting to a board.
or £1290/year
- Up to £500k MRR analysed
- Everything in Starter
- Survival analysis & log-rank tests
- Monte Carlo forecasts
- Churn-risk scoring & exports
- 5 seats
Scale
For multi-product SaaS with serious data.
or £3490/year
- Unlimited MRR
- Everything in Growth
- Stripe, Chargebee & warehouse sync
- Scenario planning workspaces
- SSO & audit log
- Priority support
FAQ
Questions, answered.
What data do I need?+
One CSV of subscription line items: customer_id, plan, mrr, start_date, plus optional end_date and segment. Most billing systems can export this in minutes, and Obelisk gives you a template.
Where is my data processed?+
Every model runs in your browser. With an account, imported rows are stored in your team workspace on our backend (encrypted at rest, isolated per workspace by row-level security, with roles and an audit log). The live demo keeps everything on your device.
How is this different from my billing dashboard?+
Billing tools report what happened. Obelisk quantifies uncertainty: confidence intervals on LTV and survival, significance tests between segments, and probabilistic forecasts rather than a single straight line.
How accurate is the forecast?+
The Monte Carlo engine fits churn, expansion, contraction and new-business rates to your trailing 12 months and carries parameter uncertainty through every simulated path. Its expected value is checked against a closed-form solution in our test suite.
Can I cancel anytime?+
Yes. Plans are monthly or annual (two months free). Prices exclude VAT. Cancel from settings with no notice period.
Is there a free trial?+
Every plan includes a 14-day free trial, and the live demo with 400 synthetic accounts is available without signing up.
See your revenue clearly.
Open the live demo with 400 synthetic accounts, or upload your own CSV. Analysis takes seconds.